Russia's President Vladimir Putin (Kiri)
shakes hands with Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan (Presiden Rusia Vladimir
Putin (L) berjabat tangan dengan Presiden Turki Tayyip Erdogan) © Umit Bektas/Reuters
hAMDEn - Kecewa
dengan serangan Rusia ke ruang udara Turki minggu lalu semasa kempen Syria,
Presiden Erdogan memberi amaran Moscow bahawa Turki boleh mendapatkan gas dari
negara-negara lain daripada yang membina kilang pertama nuklearnya. Tetapi
nombor menunjukkan ia tidak akan mudah.
"Kami
nombor satu pengguna gas asli Rusia. Kehilangan Turki akan menjadi kerugian
yang serius bagi Rusia. Jika perlu, Turki boleh mendapatkan gas asli dari
tempat-tempat yang berbeza," Erdogan dipetik sebagai berkata oleh akhbar
harian Turki Sabah.
"Ini
adalah perkara-perkara yang bagi Rusia untuk difikirkan. Jika Rusia tidak
membina Akkuyu (loji nuklear) yang lain akan datang dan membina," katanya.
Tetapi
hidup tanpa gas Rusia boleh menjadi lebih mudah berkata daripada dilakukan.
Pada
tahun 2014, Turki yang diimport 27.3 billion meter padu gas daripada Gazprom,
yang berjumlah hampir 60% peratus daripada penggunaan gas Turki. Turki adalah pasaran
Gazprom yang ke-2 terbesar selepas Jerman. Gas Rusia diangkut ke Turki melalui
saluran paip Blue Stream yang berlangsung di bawah Laut Hitam dan melalui
saluran paip Trans-Balkan seluruh Ukraine.
Turkey
unlikely to manage without Russian gas
Frustrated
by Russian incursions into Turkish airspace last week during the Syrian
campaign, President Erdogan warned Moscow that Turkey could get gas from
countries other than the one building its first nuclear plant. But the numbers
show it won’t be easy.
"We
are Russia's number one natural gas consumer. Losing Turkey would be a serious
loss for Russia. If necessary, Turkey can get its natural gas from many
different places,” Erdogan was quoted as saying by Turkish daily Sabah.
"These
are matters for Russia to think about. If the Russians don't build the Akkuyu
(nuclear plant) another will come and build it," he added.
But
life without Russian gas may be easier said than done.
In
2014, Turkey imported 27.3 billion cubic meters of gas from Gazprom, which
amounts for nearly 60 percent of Turkey’s gas consumption. Turkey is Gazprom’s
second biggest market after Germany. Russian gas is transported to Turkey via
the Blue Stream pipeline which runs under the Black Sea and via the
Trans-Balkan pipeline across Ukraine.
© eia.gov
Jika
Turki memutuskan untuk parit gas Rusia tidak bersetuju dengan Moscow atas
Syria, pilihan pembekalnya menjadi sangat terhad. Pembekal gas yang ke-2
terbesar Ankara adalah Iran, yang juga menyokong Presiden Syria dan operasi
tentera Rusia. Jadi, Turki mungkin perlu bertukar ke Azerbaijan, yang
membekalkan hanya 10 % peratus daripada keperluan Ankara.
Hampir
75 % peratus daripada tenaga Turki datang dari luar negara, manakala Rusia
menyumbang 1/5 daripada penggunaan tenaga Turki, menjadikannya nombor satu
pembekal tenaga. Rusia membina Akkuyu loji tenaga nuklear. Projek ini bernilai
kira-kira $ 20 bilion, dan akan menjadi loji kuasa nuklear pertama di negara
ini.
If
Turkey decides to ditch Russian gas in its disagreement with Moscow over Syria,
its supplier options become very limited. Ankara’s second biggest gas supplier
is Iran, which also supports the Syrian president and Russia’s military
operation. So, Turkey will likely have to turn to Azerbaijan, which supplies
only 10 percent of Ankara’s needs.
Nearly
75 percent of Turkey's energy comes from abroad, while Russia accounts for
one-fifth of Turkey's energy consumption, making its number one energy
supplier. Russia is building the Akkuyu
nuclear power plant. The project is costing about $20 billion, and will be the
first nuclear power plant in the country.
Turkey
May Find Life Without Russian Gas Easier Said Than Done http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-12/turkey-may-find-life-without-russian-gas-easier-said-than-done … via @business
"Saya
rasa Erdogan membuat kenyataan politik. Ia adalah populis, dan tidak boleh
dianggap terlalu serius," Volkan Ozdemir, pengarah Institut Pasaran Tenaga
Polisi memberitahu RIA Novosti.
"Kontrak
gas antara Rusia dan Turki adalah berdasarkan 'mengambil atau membayar'
formula. Ini adalah mengapa ia adalah teknikal mustahil untuk Turki untuk
meninggalkan sepenuhnya bekalan gas Rusia. Hanya penurunan yang tidak ketara
dalam bekalan yang boleh dilakukan. Apa yang lebih, Rusia mempunyai hak untuk
ketara mengurangkan atau menghentikan penghantaran gas ke Turki, "kata
Ozdemir.
"I
think Erdogan made a political statement. It is populist, and should not be
considered too seriously," Volkan Ozdemir, director of the Institute for
Energy Markets and Policy told RIA Novosti.
"The
gas contract between Russia and Turkey is based on the 'take or pay' formula.
This is why it is technically impossible for Turkey to fully abandon Russian
gas supplies. Only an insignificant decline in supplies is possible. What is
more, Russia has no right to significantly decrease or stop its gas deliveries
to Turkey," Ozdemir said.
Turkey
aims for $100bn trade with Russia by 2023 - Erdogan http://on.rt.com/6s2c 2:05 AM - 27 Sep 2015
Turki
berkata Rusia menceroboh ruang udara yang ke-2 kali sepanjang minggu lepas
semasa kempen Syria itu. Moscow telah berkata ia akan membuat pembetulan kepada
misi pertempuran untuk mengelakkan insiden tersebut. Pegawai-pegawai NATO
diletupkan Moscow untuk "pelanggaran tidak boleh diterima," menurut
Setiausaha Agung Jens Stoltenberg.
Perdana
Menteri Turki, Ahmet Davutoglu sebelum ini berkata kejadian itu tidak akan
meningkatkan ketegangan antara kedua-dua negara.
Turkey
said Russia invaded its airspace twice over the last week during its Syrian
campaign. Moscow has said it would make corrections to the combat missions to
avoid such incidents. NATO officials blasted Moscow for “unacceptable
violations,” according to Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.
Turkish
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu earlier said the incident would not raise
tensions between the two countries.
